tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-45603965522678128682024-03-13T17:07:53.198-07:00Recession TimesTracking a likely 2008 US Recession. Please join in the discussion.Davidhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11169148764438565562noreply@blogger.comBlogger15125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4560396552267812868.post-63999745039733502392008-03-03T09:58:00.000-08:002008-03-03T09:59:27.614-08:00This domain Name is for sale<a href="http://www.recessiontimes.com/">www.recessiontimes.com</a> domain name is for sale. If interested please contact me at <a href="mailto:davidyjackson@gmail.com">davidyjackson @ gmail.com</a><br /><br />ThanksDavidhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11169148764438565562noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4560396552267812868.post-8828578163096115502007-12-11T19:24:00.000-08:002007-12-11T19:34:48.844-08:00Recession Times RoundupNouriel Roubini has an <a href="http://rs.rgemonitor.com/blog/roubini/231693">informative post</a> titled 'The consensus is moving from the soft vs. hard landing debate towards how severe the hard landing will be.' <br /><br />The Fed <a href="http://federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20071211a.htm">dropped rates today</a>, but it will it be enough to prevent a recession?<br /><br />Check out <a href="http://economicdisconnect.blogspot.com/">Economic Disconnect</a>. Lots of information to digest. mmm, mmm good!Davidhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11169148764438565562noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4560396552267812868.post-77856300974441016752007-11-26T13:24:00.000-08:002007-11-26T13:31:25.856-08:00CitiGroup May Layoff 45,000 Employees<a href="http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/citigroup-shares-fall-report-layoffs/story.aspx?guid=%7B548232D4%2D19F0%2D4EB5%2D8192%2D9AE67C5D2983%7D"><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_0">MarketWatch</span> reported </a>that "<span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_1">Citigroup</span> shares fell more than 5% Monday, falling under $30 for the first time in five years after <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_2">CNBC</span> reported the firm could lay off up to 45,000 staffers. "<br /><br />"The expected layoffs are the result of several billion dollars of mortgage losses at <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_3">Citigroup</span>.<br />The bank said Monday that it's in a planning process to become more efficient and cost effective as the financial-services giant grapples with billions of dollars in losses from the <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_4">subprime</span> mortgage-fueled credit crisis. "<br /><br />"<span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_5">CNBC</span> described the layoffs as "massive" and said they would not be restricted to the fixed income and mortgage divisions."<br /><br />"In April, <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_6">Citi</span> set layoffs of 17,000 people, or about 5% of its more than 300,000 employees. "<br /><br />The layoffs are probably just getting started in the financial sector. The official unemployment rate remains low but is expected to increase as layoffs continue in the financial and real estate related sectors.Davidhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11169148764438565562noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4560396552267812868.post-87950053664865465492007-11-26T06:42:00.000-08:002007-11-26T13:32:01.107-08:00Don't Look Now, Here Comes the Recession<a href="http://money.cnn.com/2007/11/23/magazines/fortune/barr_recession.fortune/index.htm?section=magazines_fortune">Fortune Magazine</a> reports that "The cash registers were ringing on Black Friday, but make no mistake: American consumers are jittery, and seem all but certain to push the U.S. economy into recession. "<br /><br />"After years of living happily beyond their means, Americans are finally facing financial reality. A persistent rise in energy prices will mean bigger heating bills this winter and heftier tabs at the gas pump. Job growth is slowing and wage gains have been anemic. House prices are sliding, diminishing the value of the asset that's the biggest factor in Americans' personal wealth. Even the stock market, which has been resilient for so long in the face of eroding consumer sentiment, has begun pulling back amid signs of deep distress in the financial sector. "<br /><br />"With consumer spending accounting for about three-quarters of U.S. economic activity, some economists say it is inevitable that the economy will stop growing at some point in the coming year, for the first time since the mild recession of 2001. "Right now, the question is how bad it's going to get," said David Rosenberg, chief North American economist at Merrill Lynch. "The question is one of magnitude." "Davidhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11169148764438565562noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4560396552267812868.post-61575988208875998192007-11-24T21:03:00.000-08:002007-11-24T21:19:38.528-08:00Strong Black Friday Sales, But a Shift Towards Cheaper StoresFrom initial reports, the holiday season started off with strong sales, with a shift towards discount retailers.<br /><span style="font-family:Verdana,Sans-serif;"><span style="font-size:85%;color:black;"><span id="article"><span id="intelliTXT"><p></p><blockquote><p>The nation's retailers had a robust start to the holiday shopping season, according to results announced Saturday by a national research group that tracks sales at retail outlets across the country.</p><p> According to ShopperTrak RCT Corp., which tracks sales at more than 50,000 retail outlets, total sales rose 8.3 percent to about $10.3 billion on Friday, the day after Thanksgiving, compared with $9.5 billion on the same day a year ago. ShopperTrak had expected an increase of no more than 4 percent to 5 percent. (<a href="http://apnews.myway.com/article/20071125/D8T4EQR00.html">AP 11/24/07</a>)</p></blockquote></span></span></span></span>The intial reports showed shoppers appeared more interested in bargains then in upsacle shopping.<br /><p></p><blockquote><p>With an uncertain economy, a slowdown in the housing market and high gas prices hanging over their heads, consumers flocked to discount chains like <a href="http://topics.nytimes.com/top/news/business/companies/wal_mart_stores_inc/index.html?inline=nyt-org" title="More information about Wal-Mart Stores Inc.">Wal-Mart</a>, <a href="http://topics.nytimes.com/top/news/business/companies/target_corporation/index.html?inline=nyt-org" title="More information about Target Corporation">Target</a> and <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/mem/MWredirect.html?MW=http://custom.marketwatch.com/custom/nyt-com/html-companyprofile.asp&symb=BBY" title="Best Buy">Best Buy</a>, brandishing bargain-filled fliers. </p><p>In a reversal from years past, they largely bypassed more expensive retailers, including such powerhouses as <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/mem/MWredirect.html?MW=http://custom.marketwatch.com/custom/nyt-com/html-companyprofile.asp&symb=JWN" title="Nordstrom">Nordstrom</a>, <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/mem/MWredirect.html?MW=http://custom.marketwatch.com/custom/nyt-com/html-companyprofile.asp&symb=COH" title="Coach">Coach</a> and <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/mem/MWredirect.html?MW=http://custom.marketwatch.com/custom/nyt-com/html-companyprofile.asp&symb=ANF" title="Abercrombie & Fitch">Abercrombie & Fitch</a>, according to shoppers and merchants interviewed around the country (<a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2007/11/24/business/24shop.html?adxnnl=1&adxnnlx=1195967419-Y/GmyLae6Uaa2ziCt1/eKg">NYTimes 11/24/07).</a></p></blockquote><p><a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2007/11/24/business/24shop.html?adxnnl=1&adxnnlx=1195967419-Y/GmyLae6Uaa2ziCt1/eKg"></a> </p>Black Friday often sets the tone for the holiday shopping season. Perhaps, this holiday season's sales will be disappointing for retailers, as consumer cut back due to economic weaknesses.Davidhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11169148764438565562noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4560396552267812868.post-13622437463559131462007-11-23T05:00:00.000-08:002008-11-18T12:35:58.316-08:00Black Friday<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh9e4UqL2gAUOIJFuCvJAwMftUfSkuWovt1Qr6SK3vabgWvuiokPPfUl8DqPasr5CvJ1kXirY7N1XWuqafam_Ilt01c9Xj14cU1dWYROxx3j7evTGXmNxAqz7HBF457AbJ9RQVkePXC9QA/s1600-h/black-friday.jpg"><img style="margin: 0px auto 10px; display: block; text-align: center; cursor: pointer;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh9e4UqL2gAUOIJFuCvJAwMftUfSkuWovt1Qr6SK3vabgWvuiokPPfUl8DqPasr5CvJ1kXirY7N1XWuqafam_Ilt01c9Xj14cU1dWYROxx3j7evTGXmNxAqz7HBF457AbJ9RQVkePXC9QA/s320/black-friday.jpg" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5135900016385005154" border="0" /></a><br /><br />Consumer spending makes up almost 70% of the US economy. A disproportionate amount of that spending occurs in the post Thanksgiving holiday season.<br /><br /><span style="font-size:85%;"><b></b></span><blockquote><span style="font-size:85%;"><b>As US retailers prepare for Black Friday, the day after Thanksgiving that marks the start of the Christmas season, festive cheer seems limited.</b> </span><p> <span style="font-size:85%;">With US economic growth hit by the downturn in the housing market, and the knock-on credit crisis, recent data has shown a sharp fall in retail spending. </span></p><p> <span style="font-size:85%;">And as US consumers seem less willing or able to spend, most retail analysts expect this downturn to continue. </span></p><p> <span style="font-size:85%;">"The holiday season will be terrible," said economist Ian Shepherdson. (<a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7108071.stm">BBC News 11/23/07)</a></span></p></blockquote>What will happen to consumer spending this Black Friday compared to last year? How will the holiday season stack up against last year? Will consumers cut back, due to economic problems (high gas, housing bust, etc), or will they callously shrug off the economic problems and spend?Davidhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11169148764438565562noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4560396552267812868.post-6554877862216247262007-11-22T17:48:00.001-08:002007-11-22T17:48:38.275-08:00Happy ThanksgivingHappy Thanksgiving to everyone! Enjoy!Davidhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11169148764438565562noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4560396552267812868.post-42539443758616307492007-11-21T08:26:00.001-08:002007-11-21T08:34:42.790-08:00More Americans Expecting Recession in The Next YearMore Americans are expecting a recession in the next year. Consumers are waking up to the reality that the economy has a significant chance of recession next year.<br /><blockquote><br />The economic mood took a sharp turn for the worse over the past month, with 40 percent of Americans expecting a recession in the next year, according to a Reuters / <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_0">Zogby</span> poll released Wednesday.<br /><br />That was a big rise from a month earlier, when 31 percent of the likely voters polled predicted a recession. The darker mood came as mounting concerns about housing and credit markets pounded Wall Street, and oil prices approached $100 per barrel.<br /><br />That was a big rise from a month earlier, when 31 percent of the likely voters polled predicted a recession. The darker mood came as mounting concerns about housing and credit markets pounded Wall Street, and oil prices approached $100 per barrel. (<a href="http://www.cnbc.com/id/21913572"><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_1">CNBC</span></a> 1/21/07)<br /></blockquote><br /><br />Recession times are increasingly being expected. The coming holiday spending season will <span class="blsp-spelling-corrected" id="SPELLING_ERROR_2">likely</span> provide important clues to where consumer spending is headed. Consumer spending is about 70% of the <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_3">US's</span> GDP. Consumer spending is a key factor in a forecasting a recession.Davidhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11169148764438565562noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4560396552267812868.post-6639376786980765882007-11-20T08:43:00.000-08:002008-11-18T12:35:58.477-08:00Googling "recession" from United States has Tripled in the Past Year<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhgwmwGYVDWWZSknRyYCVFLVkaOEafGtxh3o8TLpOy48BKrokH1TSrb1wCTlEjZ5auBHmwDYWi1Mk3CyQsC3_uTLP3vymhX2TtfsGJfqfo3nHxlOnZ55jdRehEecTObsnKekmKOLJwAXoA/s1600-h/recession_google.JPG"><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5134964606867674690" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; CURSOR: hand; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhgwmwGYVDWWZSknRyYCVFLVkaOEafGtxh3o8TLpOy48BKrokH1TSrb1wCTlEjZ5auBHmwDYWi1Mk3CyQsC3_uTLP3vymhX2TtfsGJfqfo3nHxlOnZ55jdRehEecTObsnKekmKOLJwAXoA/s320/recession_google.JPG" border="0" /></a><br /><br />Graph of the number of times the word <a href="http://www.google.com/trends?q=recession&ctab=0&geo=US&geor=all&date=ytd&sort=0">"recession" was googled from United States</a> over the last year. As one can tell it has triple in the past year.<br /><br /><div></div>Davidhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11169148764438565562noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4560396552267812868.post-83695928942927978542007-11-18T10:31:00.001-08:002007-11-18T10:38:19.730-08:00Nouriel Roubini: "clear by now that a severe U.S. recession is inevitable in next few months."Nouriel Roubini, a leading economist at New York University, is <a href="http://www.rgemonitor.com/blog/roubini/227330">now saying</a> that a US Recession is almost here:<br /><blockquote>"<span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman;">It is increasingly clear by now that a severe U.S. recession is inevitable in next few months. Those of us who warned for the last 12 months about a combination of a worsening housing recession, a severe credit crunch and financial meltdown, high oil prices and a saving-less and debt-burdened consumers being on the ropes causing an economy-wide recession were repeatedly rebuffed the consensus view about a soft landing given the presumed resilience of the US consumer."<br /><br /></span></span><p style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;" class="MsoNormal"> </p><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman;">"But the evidence is now building that an ugly recession is inevitable."<span></span></span></span></blockquote><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman;"><span></span></span></span>Roubini is a smart economist who often goes against the consensus view.Davidhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11169148764438565562noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4560396552267812868.post-45064030270272439802007-11-18T07:18:00.001-08:002007-11-18T07:21:50.774-08:00Economist: America's Vulnerable Economy<div style="text-align: center;"><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://www.economist.com/images/20071117/20071117issuecovUS400.jpg"><img style="margin: 0px auto 10px; display: block; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 200px;" src="http://www.economist.com/images/20071117/20071117issuecovUS400.jpg" alt="" border="0" /></a><a href="http://economist.com/opinion/displaystory.cfm?story_id=10134118">America's Vulnerable Economy</a></div>Davidhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11169148764438565562noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4560396552267812868.post-48896138351388861912007-11-15T17:05:00.001-08:002007-11-15T17:05:49.872-08:00Economy Slowing Says Calculated Risk<a href="http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/2007/11/downey-financial-non-performing-assets.html">Great Blogger, Calculated Risk</a> "Clearly the economy is slowing sharply"Davidhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11169148764438565562noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4560396552267812868.post-68540130595756808552007-11-13T18:25:00.000-08:002007-11-13T18:34:03.657-08:00Risk Factors For A 2008 RecessionHere are the top risk factors for 2008 US Recession:<br /><br /><ul><li>Continuing Housing Bust</li><li> High Oil Prices </li><li>Security Issues</li><li>Credit Crunch</li><li>High Consumer Debt</li><li>Large Trade Deficit</li><li>Consumer Spending is slowing (it makes up 70% of the US GDP)</li><li>Commercial Construction decline<br /></li></ul>Davidhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11169148764438565562noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4560396552267812868.post-46580714305373771182007-11-12T20:16:00.000-08:002007-11-12T20:19:20.634-08:00Recession Fears Grow<a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/reutersEdge/idUSN1246297620071112?pageNumber=3">Reuters reports</a> that "Unsold goods are piling up in warehouses as the housing meltdown and soaring oil prices strain consumers, raising fears that already glum fourth-quarter growth prospects may tip toward recession."<br /><br />"The sluggishness is apparent in the retail sector, where 70 percent of chain stores posted weaker-than-expected October sales results, according to research firm Retail Metrics.<span id="midArticle_0"></span> <p>"We expect the challenging retail environment to continue for the foreseeable future," Mike Ullman, chairman and chief executive officer of department store chain J.C. Penney (JCP.N: <a href="http://www.reuters.com/stocks/quote?symbol=JCP.N">Quote</a>, <a href="http://www.reuters.com/stocks/companyProfile?symbol=JCP.N">Profile</a>, <a href="http://www.reuters.com/stocks/researchReports?symbol=JCP.N">Research</a>), said last week. He added that the company would keep inventory levels tight through 2008."</p>Respected economist <a href="http://www.rgemonitor.com/blog/roubini/226072">Nouriel Roubini writes</a> "Any recession call for the U.S. is clearly dependent on US consumption faltering. Since residential investment is only 5% of even a worsening housing recession cannot – by itself – trigger an economy-wide recession. Rather, since private consumption is over 70% of aggregate demand a sharp and persistent slowdown in consumption growth – below 1% or even negative - is necessary to trigger a full blown recessionDavidhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11169148764438565562noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4560396552267812868.post-28626321727460057032007-11-08T21:26:00.000-08:002007-11-22T21:32:35.914-08:00Housing Bubble Sites<span style="font-weight: bold;">National Sites<br /></span><ul><li><a href="http://thehousingbubbleblog.com/">The Housing Bubble</a></li><li><a href="http://housebubble.com/">The House Bubble</a></li><li><a href="http://housingpanic.blogspot.com/">Housing Panic</a></li><li><a href="http://paper-money.blogspot.com/">Paper Economy a US Real Estate Bubble Blog</a></li><li><a href="http://housingdoom.com/">Housing Doom Housing Bubble</a></li><li><a href="http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/">Doctor Housing Bubble</a></li><li><a href="http://bubbletracking.blogspot.com/">Bubble Markets Inventory Tracking</a></li><li><a href="http://pricedoutforever.com/">Priced Out Fovever</a></li><li><a href="http://www.housingtracker.net/">HousingTracker</a></li><li><a href="http://matrix.millersamuel.com/">Matrix</a></li><li><a href="http://therealestatebloggers.com/">The Real Estate Bloggers</a></li><li><a href="http://ml-implode.com/">The Mortgage Lender Implode-O-Meter</a></li><li><a href="http://www.housingbubblecasualty.com/">Housing Bubble Casualty</a></li><li><a href="http://www.housingbubblebust.com/">Housing Bubble Bust</a></li><li><a href="http://www.bubblepic.com/">Bubble Pictures</a></li><li><a href="http://www.paperdinero.com/BNN.aspx">Bubble News Network</a></li><li><a href="http://lawrenceyunwatch.blogspot.com/">Lawrence Yun Watch</a></li><li><a href="http://mysite.verizon.net/vodkajim/housingbubble/">Is There a Housing Bubble</a></li><li><a href="http://recomments.blogspot.com/">Real Estate Comments</a></li></ul><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Regional Sites<br /></span><ul><li><a href="http://www.dchousingprices.com/">DC Home Prices</a></li><li><a href="http://novabubblefallout.blogspot.com/">Greater Northern VA Housing Bubble Fallout</a></li><li><a href="http://franklyrealty.blogspot.com/">Frankly Realty (Virginia)</a></li><li><a href="http://baltimorehousing.blogspot.com/">Baltimore Metro Area Housing Blog</a></li><li><a href="http://bubblemore.blogspot.com/">Baltimore Housing Bubble</a></li><li><a href="http://chicagobubbleblog.blogspot.com/">Chicago Bubble Blog</a></li><li><a href="http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/">Irvine Housing Bubble</a></li><li><a href="http://shorebubble.blogspot.com/">The Jersey Shore RE Bubble</a></li><li><a href="http://njrereport.com/">New Jersey Real Estate Report</a></li><li><a href="http://socketsite.com/">Socket Site (San Francisco)</a></li><li><a href="http://patrick.net/wp/">Patrick.net (San Francisco)</a></li><li><a href="http://bayarearealestatebubble.blogspot.com/">Bay Area Real Estate Blog</a></li><li><a href="http://www.burbed.com/">Burbed (San Francisco)</a></li><li><a href="http://marinrealestatebubble.blogspot.com/">Marin Real Estate Bubble</a></li><li><a href="http://www.sonomahousingbubble.blogspot.com/">Sonoma Housing Bubble</a></li><li><a href="http://seattlebubble.com/">Seattle Bubble</a></li><li><a href="http://www.calgary-housing.blogspot.com/">Calgary Contrarian</a></li><li><a href="http://van-housing.blogspot.com/">Vancouver Housing Market Blog</a></li><li><a href="http://www.socalbubble.blogspot.com/">SoCal Real Estate Bubble Blog</a></li><li><a href="http://flippersintrouble.blogspot.com/">Flippers in Trouble (Sacramento)</a></li><li><a href="http://portlandhousing.blogspot.com/">Portland Housing</a></li><li><a href="http://econo-almanac.com/">Proffesor Piggington (San Deigo)</a></li><li><a href="http://pacificbeachbubble.blogspot.com/">Pacific Beach Bubble</a></li><li><a href="http://www.bostonbubble.com/">Boston Bubble</a></li><li><a href="http://www.californiahousingforecast.com/">California Housing Forecast</a></li><li><a href="http://masshousemarket.blogspot.com/">Massachusetts Housing Market</a></li><li><a href="http://vancouvercondo.info/">Vancouver Condo Info</a></li><li><a href="http://www.nychousingbubble.blogspot.com/">New York City Housing Bubble</a></li></ul>Davidhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11169148764438565562noreply@blogger.com0